https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-on-reserve-voting-2019-1.5417763

Conservatives saw an increase, but finished a distant third in on-reserve voting

Liberal support among voters living on reserves fell significantly in October’s federal election, as the New Democrats remained the top choice. But the Liberals nevertheless retained more than two-thirds of the support they had gained in the previous election, before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s stated commitment to Indigenous reconciliation hit some obstacles during his first four years in office.

Indigenous engagement in the 2015 federal election was high, with turnout reaching a historic summit of 61.5 per cent on First Nations reserves. While the NDP won that vote, the Liberals made significant inroads among First Nations voters, more than tripling their support.

On-reserve turnout figures for the 2019 federal election are not yet available, but an analysis of Elections Canada data by CBC News finds that the New Democrats were able to win the vote in on-reserve polling divisions for at least the third consecutive election — but their lead over the Liberals was virtually unchanged from four years before.

A measure of First Nations people living on-reserve represents a minority of Indigenous Canadians, as it excludes any who live off-reserve as well as Inuit, Métis, and non-status Indians. Only about half of First Nations people and around a quarter of all Canadians who claim Aboriginal identity in the census live on reserves. Additionally, roughly 10 per cent of people living on reserve are not Indigenous.

But among those in October who voted in polling divisions located entirely on-reserve, the NDP received the greatest share with 40.2 per cent of ballots cast. The Liberals finished second with 32.5 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 17.2 per cent and the Greens at 7.5 per cent. Together, the People’s Party, Bloc Québécois and other candidates earned 2.5 per cent of the on-reserve vote.

This suggests First Nations voters — at least those living on reserves — were more than twice as likely to vote for the NDP as other Canadians. The party captured 15.9 per cent of the vote nationwide, less than half of the share it received on reserves. Conversely, the Conservatives were twice as popular in the country as a whole as they were on reserves.

The Liberal vote share on reserves and nationwide was not significantly different.

Despite finishing first, for the NDP this represents the party’s second consecutive decrease in support on reserves. The NDP received 58.4 per cent of the vote in polling divisions located entirely on reserves in 2011, when the New Democrats formed the Official Opposition. That dropped 12 points to 46.4 per cent in 2015 and another six points in 2019.

The Liberals saw their share of the vote on reserves drop eight points since 2015, though their score was still significantly higher than the 12.9 per cent the party received in 2011. While their drop was more than any other party’s, it is perhaps not as steep as some expected, particularly after the SNC-Lavalin affair and the expulsion of Jody Wilson-Raybould, Canada’s first Indigenous attorney general, from caucus.

The Conservatives saw an increase of eight points on reserves between 2015 and 2019, though their result was still lower than the 22.8 per cent earned in 2011.

Liberal support on reserves helped win 2 seats
There were some significant regional variations in how First Nations voted in on-reserve polling divisions.

The Liberals were the top choice on reserves in both Atlantic Canada and Quebec, outpacing their nearest rivals by 23 and 27 percentage points, respectively.

That advantage for the Liberals appears to have been decisive in two ridings. The Liberals won the New Brunswick seat of Miramichi–Grand Lake by a margin of 370 votes over the Conservatives, fewer than the gap of 414 votes separating the Liberals and Conservatives on reserves in the riding.

In the Nova Scotia riding of Sydney–Victoria, the Liberals won by an overall margin of 1,309 votes over the Conservatives. Their edge over the Conservatives in on-reserve polling divisions was 1,711 votes.

NDP heavily favoured in Ontario
In Ontario, however, the New Democrats were particularly strong. The party received 58 per cent of the votes on reserves in the province, well ahead of the Liberals’ 29 per cent. That is a big shift from 2015, with the New Democrats widening their margin over the Liberals by 20 points.

In Timmins–James Bay in northern Ontario, the NDP’s Charlie Angus earned 86 per cent of the vote in on-reserve polling divisions, more than twice his share in the rest of the riding. He received 99 per cent in Kashechewan First Nation — up from 88 per cent in 2015 — where a state of emergency was declared in April due to flooding.

In Grassy Narrows First Nation, where residents have struggled with the health effects of mercury poisoning, Chief Rudy Turtle captured 72 per cent of the vote for the NDP. Defeated Liberal incumbent Bob Nault took just 27 per cent of the vote, roughly half of his share from 2015. He was probably not helped by Trudeau having to apologize after sarcastically thanking a Grassy Narrows protester for their donation at a Liberal fundraiser last year.

Conservatives overcome low on-reserve support
Turtle, however, was not able to win the Kenora riding despite his strong support on reserves. The NDP received 67 per cent of the vote in on-reserve polling divisions in Kenora, compared to just two per cent for the Conservatives’ Eric Melillo, whose support was strong enough in the rest of the riding to secure the seat.

This was also the case in the Saskatchewan riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River, in which 71 per cent of the population claims Aboriginal identity. The Liberals’ Tammy Cook-Searson, chief of the Lac La Ronge Indian Band, won 49 per cent of the on-reserve vote, edging out NDP incumbent Georgina Jolibois by five points.

The Conservatives’ Gary Vidal took just six per cent of the vote in on-reserve polling divisions, but managed to get 56 per cent of the vote in the rest of the riding. This made the difference, as Jolibois and Cook-Searson finished well back in other polling divisions with only 23 and 18 per cent of the vote, respectively.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer received only five per cent of the vote in on-reserve polling divisions in his Regina–Qu’Appelle riding. He won the Saskatchewan riding, in which 21 per cent of the population claims Aboriginal descent, with 63 per cent of the vote.

This was typical for the Conservatives in the region. Across Alberta and Saskatchewan, where the party won 47 of 48 seats, the Conservative had just 10 per cent support in on-reserve polling divisions. The NDP had 47 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 39 per cent.

Only in British Columbia did the Conservatives edge out the other parties in on-reserve voting, with 31.4 per cent of ballots cast to the NDP’s 30.8 per cent and the Liberals’ 21 per cent.